'False dawn' in UK housing market

by Peter James 16. September 2009 13:18


The recent rise in UK house prices is a "false dawn", an economic forecasting group has warned.

The Ernst & Young Item Club says property values will not return to their 2007 peak for at least another five years.

However the latest figures from mortgage lenders show a continued revival in lending to house buyers.

The number of loans granted for house purchase in July this year was 19% higher than in July 2008.

 Turn in the market?

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), which published the figures, said they showed the "first material annual growth" since early 2007, which was just before the UK property market was hit by a sudden downturn due to the onset of the credit crunch.

 

 There are still constraints affecting the lending industry's capacity to fund increased lending 
Paul Samter, CML

"It's tempting to call the turn in the mortgage market at this point, and there is certainly concrete evidence that lending for house purchase is increasing," said the CML's economist Paul Samter.

"But there are still constraints affecting the lending industry's capacity to fund increased lending, as well as less consumer motivation to remortgage for the time being."

The CML said the number of new mortgages granted to house buyers stood at 56,000 in July, up by 24% from June and 19% higher than a year ago.

But the Item club argued that the increase in prices this year was largely due to an "acute shortage of available properties" and "a small number of cash-rich buyers".

"The supply of these funds is limited, which means prices are likely to dip again in the first half of next year," said the forecasters's economist Hetal Mehta.

Differing views

The Item Club is the latest commentator to argue that recent upturn in prices reflects an unusual position in the market that is unlikely to last.

Read the whole story from the BBC here: Taken from the BBC

Tell us what you think. Have you sold your property recently after an extended time on the market?  If so, did you drop the price and by how much? 

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