Are house price rises a good thing?
Over the past few weeks there have been a number of positiveindicators that the housing marketing is staging a recovery, or at the veryleast prices have stopped falling.
This may come as some as welcome news for the bewildered Britishbuilding sector and the countless pig like estate agents and greedy home ownerswho are dying to go back to the price rise bubble of the past 10 years. However is this what we need in the UK. Should out economy be so dependent on the residentialconstruction industry?
| May 2009: 243.8 (January 1995:100) |
| Average price: | £152,497 | | | | Monthly change: | -0.2% | | | | Annual change: | -15.9% | |
The resultsof the 2008 ASHE show that median weekly pay for full-time employees in the UKgrew by 4.6 per cent in the year to April 2008 to reach £479. Median earningsof full-time male employees was £521 per week in April 2008; for women themedian was £412.
It was the availability of cheap credit and lacks controlsof many of our financial institutions that got us into this mess. This resulted in the average house price risingto 180,000 at its peak, whilst the average income roughly tracked retailinflation at a steady 2-5% pa over the last ten years.
"As a society we need to decide that if we want to live in a four bedroom house with a x5 parked on the drive it should be a question of how much money i can earn, not how much credit I can access."
The government of the day seemed unwilling to say in publicwhat many of us industry insiders knew which was this housing bubble is unsustainable. Instead what we got were ever more ridiculousschemes being announced to help first time buyer got on to the housing ladderand the banks lining up to oblige with ever more risky lending practise.
But enough of the past..
Looking to the future do we want house prices to rise? Contrary to the current evidence, we at www.UKhousing.compredict that the worst in not yet over, and that government has constructed an artificialstabilising mechanism which has successfully halted the downward spiral. If anyone is old enough to remember blackWednesday you'll now that governments can not buck the market, and that whenthe housing market supports are removed we will see an accelerated increase inrepossession.
What do you think?